Analysis: Roscommon/Galway constituency unlikely to spring surprises
The death of John Naughten has cast a deep shadow over the Roscommon/Galway general election contest.
The Drum native had been selected by Fine Gael to contest the general election before his recent passing. His loss is both inestimable for his family, and a major blow to the political and civic life of this area.
The three-seat Roscommon/Galway constituency is fielding eleven candidates.
Last time around Roscommon/Galway was one of only two constituencies in the country not to have a Government TD.
In 2020, it elected two Independents, Michael Fitzmaurice and Denis Naughten, and a Sinn Féin TD, Claire Kerrane.
Denis Naughten has retired from politics, and is not seeking re-election. Fitzmaurice is now part of Independent Ireland, and is contesting this constituency despite the loss of part of his Galway base in the boundary commission redrawing.
The number of electoral divisions in Galway included in the constituency has fallen from 48 to 16, with a loss of some 16,330 population.
The constituency now includes the entire county of Roscommon, after 18 electoral divisions, around Boyle, with a population of 8,569, moved back from the Sligo/Leitrim constituency.
Kerrane is also running again, seeking to retain her seat, and both she and Fitzmaurice are strong odds on to return to the Dáil.
The real interest in this area is likely to be the destination of the third seat.
Fine Gael's Senator Aisling Dolan, based in Ballinasloe, was added to the ticket following the death of John Naughten, having narrowly lost out to him at a selection convention.
The party is also running North Roscommon based Dympna Daly-Finn, who was an unsuccessful local election candidate, but who emerged uncontested from the convention after a party directive that one candidate be from the northern part of the constituency.
Neither Fine Gael candidate is geographically well positioned, with the loss of areas around Galway also likely to impact Dolan's prospects. Dolan, as an Oireachtas member and 2020 general election candidate has a decent profile, however.
Fianna Fáil chose a single-candidate strategy, and Dr Martin Daly, from Ballygar, emerged victorious narrowly at a convention. Subsequently, the defeated candidate, outgoing Senator Eugene Murphy, opted to leave the party to run as an Independent.
Murphy has a track record of pulling off electoral surprises, and is not to be discounted. However, on this occasion, Fianna Fáil seem to have steadied the ship behind Daly, who has conducted a very active campaign and is favourite over Dolan and Murphy to take a seat.
The population bases of Monksland and South Roscommon, and Roscommon town, have no significant local candidate, and it will be extremely interesting to see both turnout percentages in those areas and also where the vote goes.
Andrew Mannion, from Ballinasloe, is running for People Before Profit, whilst the Green Party candidate is Martina O’Connor. Aontú is represented by Cormac Ó Corcoráin. Alan Sweeney is running for the Irish People party, and Vincent Beirne is an independent candidate.
The count is taking place in the Hyde Centre in Roscommon.
It is hoped that the destination of the three seats will become much clearer by Saturday night, even if all seats are not filled until the early hours of Sunday morning, or indeed into daylight on Sunday