Five election talking points locally

ANALYSIS

1: Boxer is Back

Buoyed by the momentum of his phenomenal vote-getting performance at the local elections in June, Kevin 'Boxer' Moran swept back to the Dáil with over 8,000 first preference votes.

The Athlone man was at his ebullient best at the count centre in TUS in the hours before and after his election – and there is no doubt that politics has now become a little more interesting in this neck of the woods.

It was becoming increasingly clear in recent months that the wider Athlone area felt the need to ensure it had its own representation in Dáil Éireann

The addition of the fifth seat was always likely to strengthen the prospect of Athlone having a TD in the Dáil. However, as it transpired, such was Moran's vote, he was elected to the third seat.

Afterwards, Independent Ireland's Paul Hogan was talking up the possibility of Athlone being in contention for two seats, if there had been a more equal share of the vote

However, it's difficult to see any strong likelihood of that occurring, given that the tallies indicated some 10,139 votes were cast in the Athlone Municipal Area, out of a total of 61,155 (the actual overall total votes was 61,884).

Even with the addition of some 5,000 Athlone-orientated voters in the dispersed Moate Municipal Area, which includes also parts of North Westmeath, it's difficult to see a path to two seats from this area.

Indeed, those with strong memories will remember how the loss of 1,800-odd votes out of the Athlone area to Sorca Clarke, in 2020, was the key factor in ‘Boxer’ Moran losing his seat in that election, in a four-seater constituency.

2: Changing fortunes

In 2020, Sinn Féin were cock-a-hoop when Sorca Clarke secured a remarkable 21% of the vote months after she had lost her council seat in Mullingar in the 2019 local elections. Fianna Fáil were rejoicing at taking two seats, while Fine Gael were considering what might have been, after Peter Burke secured a seat, but Michéal Carrigy lost out.

Now, over four years on, the picture has changed. Clarke retained her seat, and polled well, given the inclusion of a Longford running mate, but nonetheless, the party share of the vote fell from 21% to 15.1%.

Fianna Fáil is the party left licking its wounds, after its vote fell significantly, from 30.2% to 22.4%, whilst Fine Gael is jubilant after securing two seats on the back of an impressive 29.8% share of the vote, up from 25.4% in 2020.

For Fianna Fáil, Robert Troy may have felt the lingering impact of the controversy over his properties, and Joe Flaherty was cast aside by the rising Carrigy tide in Longford.

The results may have longer lasting political implications. It was notable that Peter Burke was wheeled out by Fine Gael on Monday evening for a showpiece RTÉ One News interview. Burke, despite the mishap with Michael O'Leary at the outset of this election, may again be in line for a significant ministry - and returning two seats will surely heighten his prospects. In contrast, Troy's arguments to be restored to a ministry in this new Dáil, having resigned from one in the last Dáil, have been weakened by the loss of that second seat.

3: Late John Naughten

The Roscommon Galway election was a low-key affair, and in the words of Michael Fitzmaurice, there was a shadow over the election, following the passing of John Naughten in October. Naughten, from Drum, had been selected by Fine Gael to contest the election, and would have been in with a good shout of the final seat.

In his absence, Fine Gael had two candidates labouring under the disadvantage of weak geographical location: Aisling Dolan in Ballinasloe and newcomer Dympna Daly-Finn in Arigna, in the very north of the constituency.

It was notable, and encouraging, that in the midst of the political fray, the various protagonists took time out, at the count in the Hyde Centre, to both remember John Naughten and to think of his family and friends.

Politics may be a blood sport, but human decency and empathy was clearly evident in Roscommon.

In the ballot box, the electoral powerhouse that is Michael Fitzmaurice showed no sign of weakening, and his 12,000-odd vote was remarkable, particularly in light of over 4,000 votes being lost from his East Galway base, as part of a reconfiguration of the constituency.

Many of the Sinn Féin TDs elected on the party's dramatic rise in 2020 saw their vote ebb away on this occasion, but not so Claire Kerrane, who increased her share of the vote, and cemented herself as a politician of some significance.

The third Roscommon Galway seat was always likely to go the way of Fianna Fáil's Dr Martin Daly. Word on the campaign trail was that Daly's personable manner was going down well with voters, and the controversy over the party not adding long-time campaigner Eugene Murphy to the ticket never truly caught fire and Murphy, running as an independent, failed to mount a significant challenge.

In terms of geographical make up, the area from Roscommon town to Athlone is without a resident TD, and Daly, Fitzmaurice and Kerrane will now have increased expectations placed on them from the electorate across South Roscommon.

4: Turnout

The low turnout has been a focus of debate since the election.

The turnout nationally was 59.7%, which was down from 62.9% last time.

In Longford Westmeath, it was slightly lower again, at 58.4%, compared with 60% in 2020, whilst in Roscommon Galway, the turnout was almost identical, 65.89% this time, compared to 66% in 2020.

There are no official figures for turnout in each electoral area, though anecdotally the voting patterns in the urban areas of Athlone were said to be sluggish.

There are some possible explanations for the fall in turnout on this occasion – a wet wintry Friday in advance of Christmas was hardly an ideal date – and the nature of the short, sharp campaign engendered little excitement.

However, unfortunately, in Irish elections, turnout figures should carry a major health warning.

The Electoral Register is, not to put too fine a point on it, a mess.

The Electoral Commission says that the view that it may be over-estimated nationally by up to 500,000 does not sound implausible.

Election candidates all agree that there are significant problems with the official list of voters.

There needs to be a more robust management of the electoral register - and if local authorities either are not up to the job, or are not given sufficient resources, then a solution must be found.

5: Gender Quotas

In elections, the quota is the magic word - that elusive figure that ensures a candidate reaches the promised land, or Dáil Éireann as was the case in the last week.

However, attention has also turned to another quota - gender quotas. Legislation means that political parties must select and run a minimum of 40% female candidates in order to quality for full State funding.

The initiative is designed to ensure a greater representation of women on the ballot paper.

However, as with many worthwhile initiatives, it has not worked fully as intended - and instead, in the words of an RTÉ analyst as part of its election coverage during the weekend, it has sometimes led to the development of 'sacrificial lambs', with female candidates often being added to the ticket late in the day, with no prospect of launching a significant challenge. This does a disservice to the candidates themselves, to the spirt of gender quotas, and, most damagingly, to the public perception of gender quotas.

The goal of gender quotas should really be to lead to a greater representation of female TDs rather than female candidates. Adding female candidates at the eleventh hour is not a realistic method of securing a greater number of women in the Dáil chamber.

In Longford/Westmeath, two well-known community figures, Dympna Cunniffe and Tanya Cannon, were brought onto the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael tickets by party headquarters. Both had little time to campaign and build up a profile. They could have benefited from greater support from their parties, and they endured a difficult experiences in terms of votes, although Cannon said she found the overall experience positive, whilst Cunniffe has not ruled out a future run.

On gender quotas, let's not throw the baby out with the bath water.

We need more women, more young people, and more ethnicities in our political process. We just need to find improved ways of ensuring this happens.