Politics watch: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil almost equal ahead of election

James Cox

Here, we have a look at the issues likely to dominate political discourse in the week to come.

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil essentially tied in polls

While Fine Gael held a consistent lead over Fianna Fáil in many recent polls, the coalition partners are now essentially tied ahead of the general election.

The latest Red C/Business Post poll put Fianna Fáil on 21 per cent, up three points since the last poll and only one point behind Fine Gael. Sinn Féin support was at 17 per cent in the survey.

The drop in popularity for Mary Lou McDonald's party this year has opened up a path to re-election for the current Government.

Scandals facing Sinn Féin

Sinn Féin continues to face the fallout over scandals facing the party, including the departure of TD Brian Stanley, who claims he faced a "kangaroo court" over sexual harassment allegations.

Former Sinn Féin senator Niall Ó Donnghaile's resignation over sending inappropriate texts to a 17-year-old, and the fallout over Michael McMonagle receiving from the party, after he admitted a series of offences, including attempting to incite a child to engage in sexual activity, also continue to hinder the party.

Sinn Féin healthcare plan

Sinn Féin is set to outline an alternative healthcare plan, as they look to gain support ahead of the election.

It would include hundreds of GPs being employed directly by the State, and Sinn Féin promises progress on the public GP contract would be made within its first 100 days in office.

General election date

The Government has finally confirmed there will be a general election in 2024, with Taoiseach Simon Harris indicating a Friday vote.

While December is a possibility, sources have indicated Friday, November 22nd, and Friday, November 29th, are the most likely dates, with coalition leaders leaning towards the latter.

The Dáil is currently in recess, but resumes on Tuesday, November 5th, so confirmation of the general election date will come some time after that.

Security concerns

The State's response to the alleged recruitment of an Oireachtas member as a Russian intelligence agent highlights a wider issue in terms of Ireland's intelligence, security and defence, according to a professor of international relations.

In an interview with BreakingNews.ie, UCD professor Ben Tonra said: "It was very peculiar to me that the Minister for Defence and Foreign Affairs, when he stood up in the Dáil to comment on these issues, he was not talking about the vulnerability of the State to this type of alleged espionage or intelligence gathering, he was criticising the fact this came out in the open.

"Rather than taking that approach, one would have liked a response that said 'listen, we're aware this is happening, we have systems, processes and institutions in place to address and deal with it, and this is how we're going to deal with it'. That was absent."

The upcoming general election could be a target for foreign actors looking to sow discord in European countries, Prof Tonra warned.

While it would not be as blatant as the likes of Moldova, where the public voted in favour of joining the EU despite Russian attempts to dissuade them from doing so, Prof Tonra said there are other forms of influence.

He cited the threats to elected officials and their families and attempts to stoke up violence as areas that could be targeted.

"Clearly, Russia's strategic interest is to destabilise democracies.

"In respect of the UK, that's a major adversary of Russia's. Their efforts to use social media, artificial intelligence, deepfakes and all the rest, to ferment political instability in Northern Ireland... targeting loyalist communities, republican communities, is clear and blindingly obvious.

"Here, we have the rise of the far-right. We can laugh at the National Party playing dress up in the Wicklow woods, it's all farcical, but there are seriously malevolent characters out there who have threatened government ministers, who have threatened taoisech's families, forced ministers to move out of their homes.

"We've had riots, we've had fire-bombings, we've had intimidation. These people need money, contacts, networks, and it is directly in Russia's strategic interest to promote that level of instability in a country which, clearly, they see as oppositional to their interests.

"It may be not so much as making people vote for one political party rather than another, but generally sowing instability, sowing dissension, undermining people's faith in the democratic process, that's all to the good as far as any malevolent international actor is concerned."

Abroad

In the UK, British prime minister Sir Keir Starmer will release his first budget tomorrow. There are fears of heavy cuts in the Labour government's first economic programme since taking power.

In the US, campaigning is entering the final stages ahead of the November 5th presidential election.

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are both likely to harness a message of fear, but in different ways, in the closing stretch ahead of the US presidential election, according to a political consultant who has made adverts for the likes of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Dr Laura Barberena is the founder and owner of VIVA Politics, LLC located in San Antonio, Texas. The firm manages political campaigns among other services.

In an interview with BreakingNews.ie, Dr Barberena said: "I think Trump will double down on this type of fascist, fear, rhetoric. He understands his best chance is to get young white, Latino and black men to come out and vote for him, people who don't traditionally vote. He'll lean into the grievance language, the authoritarianism appeals to this demographic.

"The 'enemy within', this language of hypermasculinity, talking about Arnold Palmer's genitalia, this is the wink wink, nudge nudge, locker room, 'I'm the man' rhetoric."

On Ms Harris, she added: "Kamala is closing out her campaign at the Ellipse where Trump delivered the speech before the insurrection, she'll double down on the threat to democracy and fascism. The CNN town hall was a key moment where she was asked if she thought he was a fascist and she said yes.

"She, too, will tap into a certain amount of fear. Fear of total economic, democratic collapse, I think that's where she's going.

"I think the appeal to Republican white women specifically is who they're focusing on. This is why we see Liz Cheney being significant in her campaign now."