Momentum can help Roscommon test Armagh's credentials

by Kevin Egan

One of the justifications for the decision to allow three teams to qualify out of four competitors in the round robin stage of the All-Ireland series is that it creates a clear incentive to climb up each spot in the table, and that for group winners, there is a distinct advantage in getting a two-week break between the final round of group games and the quarter-finals.

In 2023, that was borne out as three of the four preliminary quarter-final winners met their demise the following week – two of them by dozen-point margins – while Monaghan proved to be the exception to the rule, pushing Armagh to the wire before prevailing by way of a penalty shootout.

This year too, three of the four preliminary winners look like they might be stumbling into an onslaught.

Galway have been plagued by injuries all year and just as they welcomed back Damien Comer, Shane Walsh limped off in the first half of Saturday’s game against Monaghan. Any chance they have of upsetting Dublin must surely depend on not just the presence of their dynamic duo (as well as Robert Finnerty, another key attacker who has missed playing time), but also that these players are able to operate at their very best.

Derry will take tremendous heart from beating Mayo, but an emotional, energy-sapping 100 minutes of action is hardly ideal in advance of a clash with Kerry, while Louth found a way to win against Cork but now, seven days later, come up against a Donegal team that seems to welcome back new players into their ‘fit and ready’ contingent every week now.

At the risk of getting too optimistic, Roscommon could and should aspire to be the 2024 exception to that rule.

Other teams needed rest, but the Rossies needed a big performance. They got that and more up in Omagh, and now go into their clash with Armagh on the back of a fantastic defensive showing, and another clinically efficient effort at the other end of the field.

When Davy Burke’s side took on Dublin, we remarked here in the Westmeath Independent that they scored 0-13, and that every score came from the boot of one of their three top scorers; Conor Cox, Diarmuid Murtagh and Daire Cregg, who between them took just 14 shots.

Donie Smith would usually warrant inclusion in that company, but his deployment at centre forward didn’t really work out, he looked like a man who was quite literally ‘taking one for the team’ by lining out that far from the opposition goal.

Against Tyrone, Murtagh was the one dropped out to centre forward, and the St Faithleach’s man has made that task work, taking advantage of the slightly looser marking in that area to pop up at the end of moves and put his name to four fine points. The end result was that Roscommon scored 0-14, again entirely from their leading quartet of marksmen who each displayed a high level of accuracy.

The much bigger transformation however, was defensively. Tyrone had eight wides in the first half alone, and while some would look at the failure of Ciarán Daly to take either of his two goal chances, or those other misses, as a sign of a team that kicked away their chances, a review of the game suggests that intense Roscommon pressure was a huge factor in Tyrone’s low conversion rate.

In the modern game where 15 men defend against the ball and 15 men attack with it, it can be very difficult for teams to ensure that they still have the right matchups on the defensive end, and that they also have the right players taking shots at the other. Roscommon seem to be getting that right, just at the right time.

Conor Carroll’s kickouts were never a weakness all year, but in the last two games they’ve been superb – not just giving Roscommon a steady supply of ball, but also finding men in advanced areas of the field, overshooting high presses, and creating front foot possession that has yielded results. Against Armagh, who play an offensive game with lots of pressure applied in advanced areas of the field, that will be an invaluable weapon.

On an individual basis, outside of the shooters, there are positive signs too.

Robbie Dolan has become this year’s Ben O’Carroll – a player that doesn’t have the typical size profile of a modern intercounty player, but someone who is playing so well that dropping him isn’t an option. Meanwhile others like Ultan Harney and Shane Cunnane have quietly crept into good form, with Niall Higgins playing to a level that has allowed Brian Stack to operate in a more advanced position and thus use his all-round ability to influence games a lot more.

The best way to describe Armagh this year has been relentlessly consistent. Their demolition job against Derry – admittedly the Oak Leaf men were in disarray at the time – is their statement victory; but in fourteen games this year they’ve won nine, drawn three and lost twice to Donegal. Those two losses were a one-point loss in what was an incredibly even league final, and a penalty shootout defeat in the Ulster decider.

Ben Crealey and Niall Grimley are controlling the middle and allowing Rian O’Neill to attack from that sector, there is real depth to the panel and they can rotate players freely without weakening the side.

Conor Turbitt is very much in the All-Star conversation alongside O’Neill and if there wasn’t so much competition up front, Andrew Murnin probably wouldn’t be without hope in that sphere either. But there is a ceiling to this group, and it stands at a level that Roscommon can match.

In many ways, the Armagh team is a reflection of their manager Kieran McGeeney; incredibly fit and driven, making the best of themselves and with a strong sense of purpose and identity. Nonetheless, this is the draw the Rossies needed. Out of the teams that topped their groups in the round robin series, Roscommon simply wouldn’t have the quality to match Kerry, Donegal or Dublin if those teams played to their full potential.

If Armagh play to their full potential, but Roscommon also hit the high notes and build on last week’s effort? Then this one will go down to the wire, and when we consider that there are real concerns in Armagh about the amount of times in recent years that they have come out the wrong side of outstanding matches where there was nothing between the teams, that prospect should excite the Roscommon supporters, and the players.

The Orchard men will still be favourites, purely because they have a very solid portfolio of work all year. Believing in Roscommon involves drawing a line through everything that happened up until the beginning of June. A test of faith, certainly – but not beyond the realm of imagination either.