ANALYSIS: Longford-Westmeath: Stable landscape no more

Westmeath Independent editor Tadhg Carey looks through the tallies to ascertain some early trends. 

NOTE: This is penned before the first count

 

They used to say how stable Longford-Westmeath was.

And there were some, including most bookmakers up to the last week of the campaign, who predicted the same four TDs would be returned to Dail Eireann from Longford-Westmeath.

But the people, the voters, had a different view.

They delivered a brutal kicking to Fine Gael, whose vote collapsed from 38% in 2011 to 23.8%

Gabrielle McFadden's vote has collapsed, Bannon's was halved whilst Peter Burke appears the best positioned to take a Fine Gael seat although they still have aspirations to take two here – which on 23.8% of the vote would be a real boon to their fortunes.

The electorate have the political guillotine hanging over the neck of long-time Labour TD Willie Penrose. And they have left James Bannon dangling nervously over a political precipice.

They given their blessing to Robert Troy – who is set to top the poll and exceed the quota on the first count. His is one of the success stories of the constituency.

Although if Troy hadn't attracted 1,750 odd votes from Longford, the party would be a sure fire bet for two seats here.

The people have told Kevin 'Boxer' Moran that they are willing to give him a shot at the Dail too.

Boxer's first preference of 7,275, based on the tallies, is a massive rise on the 3,700 he received in 2007.

The campaign brings up many questions – not least whether Fianna Fail should have run a candidate in Athlone.

The ultimate answer to that question depends on whether Connie Gerety Quinn manages to grasp a seat in Longford.

She, at the moment, is in a tight scrap with Bannon and Independent Alliance's James Morgan. If Fianna Fail take two seats, their strategy will have been vindicated.

What happened to Labour? Willie Penrose has topped the poll for four successive general elections -a remarkable feat for a Labour TD in a rural constituency. But the Labour party vote has fallen by a whopping 18% from the last election, when Mae Sexton was his running mate.

However, Penrose's departure from Cabinet over Columb Barracks and subsequent return to the parliamentary party, along with his hesitation in declaring in this election, and the anti-Government vote has left him reeling.

Paul Hogan has increased his vote since 2011 but will be disappointed that he doesn't appear to have topped 10%.

He is still in the running for a seat here in Kenagh, but may well fall short on transfers.

And, as is the case elsewhere in the country, it's Independents day here too, with a 19.9% share for the Independent Alliance, independents and AAA-PBP candidate.